A new study from Stanford University has dramatically revised estimates of the global impact of COVID-19 vaccines, concluding that approximately 2.5 million lives were saved worldwide between 2020 and 2024—far fewer than the 20 million lives some earlier reports claimed were saved in the vaccine’s first year alone. Published Friday in JAMA Health Forum, the study emphasizes that the majority of lives saved—roughly 90%—were among individuals aged 60 and older, with 82% of those lives spared due to vaccines administered before infection.

The research, conducted by three Stanford scientists, found that one life was saved for every 5,400 vaccine doses given. With global COVID-related deaths estimated at around 7 million during the same period, the findings challenge both overly optimistic projections and the extreme claims made by vaccine skeptics. Lead author Dr. John P. A. Ioannidis noted that the results do not support conspiracy theories suggesting vaccines caused widespread fatalities but also call into question highly inflated life-saving claims.

“I hope people on all sides of the vaccine debate—those who exaggerated benefits and those who pushed false narratives about harm—will engage with our findings objectively,” Ioannidis stated via email. He acknowledged lingering uncertainties around global death tolls and stressed the importance of long-term, randomized trials for future vaccines—trials that were largely absent during the emergency response to COVID-19.

He also criticized broad vaccine mandates, particularly for younger populations, suggesting that these efforts may have inadvertently discouraged older, high-risk individuals from getting vaccinated. “The coercive, almost messianic messaging undermined trust in public health and medicine,” Ioannidis remarked.

The study estimated that every 900 doses administered globally preserved one year of human life—amounting to roughly 14.8 million life-years saved, primarily among older adults outside long-term care facilities. Among the nearly 4 billion people under age 30, vaccines were estimated to have saved just 2,000 lives. For those aged 30 to 59, about 250,000 lives were saved.

Supporting the findings, UCSF medical professor Dr. Monica Gandhi argued future pandemic responses should prioritize at-risk adults rather than universal vaccination. She also criticized extended school closures, saying they were unnecessary and disproportionately harmed low-income children.

In a political fallout tied to pandemic leadership, Senator Rand Paul once again referred Dr. Anthony Fauci to the Department of Justice, accusing him of perjury before Congress. This follows revelations surrounding President Biden’s use of an autopen to issue a pardon for Fauci—raising questions about who authorized the act. “Fauci’s own emails contradict his sworn statements,” Paul said, calling for accountability despite Fauci’s revered status among many on the political left.